Volume 16 Issue 4 December 2017/January 2018
Greenhouse Effect, global warming, climate change, and response of Global Civilization to manage their impacts worldwide.
by
Germain Dufour
December 2017
Love the world, save the world!
Rise up global citizens! You are needed! Life needs you, now.
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Table of Contents
- Summary.
- The Greenhouse Effect.
- Global warming.
- Climate change.
- Ozone hole.
- Impacts of global climate change.
- Conclusion.
Summary.
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Life on Earth depends on energy coming from the sun. About half the light reaching Earth's atmosphere passes through the air and clouds to the surface, where it is absorbed and then radiated upward in the form of infrared heat. Most of this heat is then absorbed by the greenhouse gases and radiated back toward the Earth's surface. A layer of greenhouse gases, in large part water vapor, and including much smaller amounts of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, forms a thermal blanket for the Earth, absorbs heat and warms the surface to a life-supporting average temperature of 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius). And that is the main cause of today's global warming, the human expansion of the "greenhouse effect", warming that results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space. The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969.
Over the past century, climate-warming has been caused mostly by human activities. Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Past evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. Global climate is known to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the amount of heat-trapping gases emitted globally. Gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect include:
Water vapor.
The most abundant greenhouse gas is water vapor. It acts as a feedback to the climate. Water vapor increases as the Earth's atmosphere warms, but so does the possibility of clouds and precipitation, making these some of the most important feedback mechanisms to the greenhouse effect.
Carbon dioxide (CO2).
A minor but very important component of the atmosphere, carbon dioxide is released through natural processes such as respiration and volcanic eruptions and through human activities such as deforestation, land use changes, and burning fossil fuels. Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by more than a third since the Industrial Revolution (1750-1900) began. This is the most important long-lived cause of climate change. In the past 150 years the industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to today 407 parts per million.
Methane.
Methane is a hydrocarbon gas produced both through natural sources and human activities, including the decomposition of wastes in landfills, agriculture, and especially rice cultivation, as well as ruminant digestion and manure management associated with domestic livestock. Methane is by far a more active greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but also one which is much less abundant in the atmosphere.
Nitrous oxide.
A powerful greenhouse gas produced by soil cultivation practices, especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers, fossil fuel combustion, nitric acid production, and biomass burning.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).
Synthetic compounds entirely of industrial origin contribute to the destruction of the ozone layer. They are also greenhouse gases.
The consequences of changing the natural atmospheric greenhouse are difficult to predict, but certain effects are very likely. On average, Earth will become warmer. Some areas may welcome warmer temperatures, but others may not. Warmer conditions may lead to more evaporation and precipitation overall, but individual areas will vary, some becoming wetter and others dryer. A stronger greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and partially melt glaciers, increasing sea level. Ocean water also will expand if it warms, contributing further to sea level rise. Melting sea ice, such as the Arctic ice cap, does not change sea level because the ice only displaces its volume.
Crops and other plants may respond favorably to increased atmospheric CO2, growing more vigorously and using water more efficiently. And higher temperatures and shifting climate patterns may change the areas where crops grow best and affect the formation of natural plant communities.
Overall, volcanoes release about 5 percent of the equivalent amount of CO2 released by humans. Once every 20 years there is a volcanic eruption that throws out a large amount of particles and gases. These will effectively shield us enough from the sun to lead to a period of global cooling. The particles and gases typically dissipate after about 2 years, but the effect is nearly global.
Even if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, global warming would continue to happen in the future for at least several more decades if not centuries. That’s because it takes a while for the planet to adjust, and also because carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. In the absence of major action to reduce emissions, global temperature will rise by an average of 6 °C (10.8 °F). A global disaster is already unfolding at the poles of the planet as we observed and shown that the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer within just a few years.
But it may not be too late to avoid or limit some of the worst effects of climate change. Responding to climate change will involve a two-tier approach:1) “mitigation” – reducing the flow of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere;The key question is: what will our emissions of carbon dioxide and other pollutants be in the years to come? What is our vision of Earth in year 2024? Recycling and driving more fuel-efficient cars are examples of important behavioral change that will help, but they will not be enough. Because climate change is a truly global and complex problem with economic, social, political and moral ramifications, the solution will require both a globally-coordinated response (such as international policies and agreements between countries, a push to cleaner forms of energy) and local efforts on the city- and regional-level (for example, public transport upgrades, energy efficiency improvements, sustainable city planning, etc.). It’s up to us what happens next. Perhaps the most effective and innovating short and long term solutions to managing global warming is building a Global Civilization for all of us today, the beginning of which is the formation of the Global Trade and Resources Ministry.
2) “adaptation” – learning to live with, and adapt to, the climate change that has already been set in motion; and
3) “realizing” – that human activities such as the world global economic development and use of global resources are out of control and forcing a complete collapse of Global Community; other human activities such as international trade agreements are all obsolete and primitive, and need to be administered by the Global Trade and Resources Ministry as promoted by Global Civilization.
Global warming is real and so is climate change. Human activities are responsible to those events worldwide. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. Most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems.
Realizing that the world global economic development and use of global resources are out of control and forcing a complete collapse of Global Community, and realizing that international trade agreements are all obsolete and primitive, and that all those human activities by large are causing the destruction of livelihood worldwide and that of the next generations, endangering all lifeforms on the planet, putting in great danger all global ecosysytems, in short threatening the survival of all life on our planet, we need a complete turn around of our ways of doing things in business and trade, in global development and the management of global resources, and we must replace the United Nations by Global Parliament with the immediate action to form the Global Trade and Resources Ministry as promoted by Global Civilization. Other essential global ministries have also been developed and promoted by Global Parliament.
The Greenhouse Effect.
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The greenhouse effect is the way in which heat is trapped close to the surface of the Earth by “greenhouse gases”. These heat-trapping gases can be thought of as a blanket wrapped around the Earth, which keeps it warmer than it would be without them.
Greenhouse gases arise naturally, and are part of the make-up of our atmosphere. Part of what makes Earth so welcoming to life-forms is the naturally-arising greenhouse effect, which keeps the planet at a friendly 15 °C (59 °F) on average. But in the last century or so, human activities have been interfering with the energy balance of the planet, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels that give off additional carbon dioxide into the air. The level of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has been rising consistently for decades and traps extra heat near the surface of the Earth, causing temperatures to rise and the warming of the planet, which in turn is causing the climate to change.
Global warming.
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Global warming refers to the long-term warming of the planet. The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere. Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with 16 of the 17 warmest years on record occurring since 2001. Not only was 2016 the warmest year on record, but eight of the 12 months that make up the year — from January through September, with the exception of June — were the warmest on record for those respective months. Global temperature shows a well-documented rise since the early 20th century and most notably since the late 1970s. Worldwide, since 1880 the average surface temperature has gone up by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), relative to the mid-20th-century baseline (of 1951-1980).
Some people might think that because the sun is the fundamental source of energy for all life on our planet, changes in the sun's energy output would cause cause global warming. But several lines of evidence show that current global warming cannot be explained by changes in energy from the sun. The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. It is therefore very unlikely that the sun has been behind the global temperature trend we’ve seen over several decades. Since 1750, the average amount of energy coming from the sun either remained constant or only increased slightly. If the warming were caused by a more active sun, then we would expect to see warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. Instead, we have observed a cooling in the upper atmosphere, and a warming at the surface and in the lower parts of the atmosphere. That's because greenhouse gases are trapping heat in the lower atmosphere. But what we actually see is warming at the surface and cooling in the stratosphere. This is consistent with the warming being caused by a build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases near the surface of the Earth, and not by the sun getting “hotter.”
Skepticism, disbelief, distrust, suspicion, or questioning of the effects or even the existence of global warming and climate change? Just take a look at more observations and impacts:1. winter warming faster than summer;33. ocean acidification;
2. cooling of upper atmosphere;
3. more fossil fuel in ocean;
4. shrinking upper atmosphere;
5. less heat escaping to space;
6. rising tropopause;
7. nights warming faster than days; shifting and shrinking of cooling period;
8. less oxygen in the air;
9. more fossil fuel carbon in the air;
10. pattern of ocean warming;
11. more heat returning to Earth;
12. more fossil fuel carbon in trees;
13. more fossil fuel carbon in coral.
14. Earth's global average temperature to a new high at just under 15 °C (60 °F);
15. rise in temperature was strikingly noticeable by unusually severe weather in many parts of the world;
16. sea levels rising with disastrous consequences for islands and low-level coastal areas;
17. seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001;
18. rate of warming across the globe over the last 50 years (0.24°F per decade is almost double the rate of warming over the last 100 years (0.13 °F per decade);
19. stronger hurricanes and cyclones; changing pattern of monsoon;
20. desertification;
21. decreases in snow cover and sea ice;
22. melting of glaciers; over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antartic ice sheets have been melting and glaciers have receded in most parts of the world;
23. increase of humidity, increase of air temperature near surface (Troposphere), increase temperature over oceans, increase sea surface temperature, increase ocean heat content, increase temperature over land;
24. latest measurement of carbon dioxide is 407 ppm, a level not seen for at least the last 800,000 years;
25. depletion in rainfall;
26. early blossoming of trees;
27. appearance of grass in Antartica;
28. changing cropping pattern;
29. more warm spells and heatwaves; more heavy rain events; more areas hit by drought; more warmer days and less cold days and nights;
30. extensive damage to Coral Reefs;
31. changes in yield of certain crops can affect imports/exports, depending on the crop; because of impacts vary significantly depending to whether crops are rain fed or irrigated, water policy will need to consider the impications for water demand of agricultural change cause by climate change;
32. social and health impacts:
* air pollution causes asthma and cardiovascular disease;
* severe weather causes injuries, fatalities, and mental health problems;
* pollution and pollen seasons will increase leading to more allergies and asthma problems; increase allergens cause respiratory allergies and asthma;
* environmental degradation causes civil conflict, forced migration, amd mental health impacts;
* water and food supply impacts cause malnutrition and diarrheal disease;
* water quality impacts cause cholera, cryptosporidiosis, campylobacter, leptospirosis, and harmful algal blooms; and
* changes in Vector Ecology causes West Nile virus, Lyme disease, malaria, chikungunya, encephalitis, Rift Valley fever, and hantavirus.
* people at risk: those living in poverty, as well as women, children and the elderly; outdoor workers and people living with chronic medical conditions; children are the most vulnerable due to long exposure to environmental risks; those living in megacities, small island development states and other coastal, mountainous and polar regions; countries with weak health systems will be least able to prepare and respond to climate change; hunger and famine will increase as food production is destabilised by drought; warmer waters and flooding will increase exposures to diseases in drinking and recreational waters;
34. the larger the increase in temperature, the more life species will be at risk of extinction; and
35. people and other life species living in low-latitude and less-developed areas are specially vulnerable; larger temperature increases will be more difficult to adapt to.
Climate change.
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Climate change comprises global warming and refers to the broader range of changes that are happening on our planet. These include rising sea levels, shrinking mountain glaciers, accelerating ice melt in Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic, and shifts in flower/plant blooming times. The Arctic Ocean is expected to become essentially ice free in summer before mid-century. These are all consequences of the warming, which is caused mainly by people burning fossil fuels and putting out heat-trapping gases into the air.
Weather refers to the more local changes in the climate we see around us, on short timescales from minutes to hours to days to weeks. Examples are: rain, snow, clouds, winds, thunderstorms, heat waves and floods. “Climate” refers to longer-term averages (they may be regional or global), and can be thought of as the weather averaged over several seasons, years or decades. Climate change is harder for us to get a sense of because the timescales involved are much longer, and the impact of climate changes can be long term.
Ozone hole.
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The ozone hole is basically a man-made hole in the ozone layer above the South Pole during the Southern Hemisphere’s spring. The ozone hole is not causing global warming, but it is affecting atmospheric circulation. The ozone layer, which lies high up in the atmosphere, shields us from harmful ultraviolet (UV) rays that come from the sun. Unfortunately we punctured a hole in it through the use of gases like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in spray cans and refrigerants, which break down ozone molecules in the upper atmosphere. While some of the sun’s UV rays passed through the hole, they account for less than one percent of the sun’s energy. So these UV rays cannot explain the global warming of the planet. The ozone hole has been affecting climate in the Southern Hemisphere. That’s because ozone is also a powerful greenhouse gas, and therefore the ozone hole has made the stratosphere (the second layer of the atmosphere going upwards) over the Southern Hemisphere colder. The colder stratosphere has resulted in faster winds near the pole, which somewhat surprisingly can have impacts all the way to the equator, affecting tropical circulation and rainfall at lower latitudes.
Impacts of global climate change.
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The potential future effects of global climate change include more frequent wildfires, longer periods of drought in some regions and an increase in the number, duration and intensity of tropical storms. Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment. Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering sooner, accelerated sea level rise and longer, more intense heat waves. The length of the frost-free season (and the corresponding growing season) has been increasing nationally since the 1980s, with the largest increases occurring in the western United States, affecting ecosystems and agriculture. Across the United States, the growing season is projected to continue to lengthen.
Droughts in the Southwest and heat waves (periods of abnormally hot weather lasting days to weeks) everywhere are becoming more intense, and cold waves less intense everywhere. Summer temperatures are rising, and a reduction of soil moisture, which exacerbates heat waves, is occurring for much of the western and central U.S. By the end of this century, what have been once-in-20-year extreme heat days (one-day events) will occur every two or three years over most of the nation. The intensity, frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are increasing as the climate continues to warm.
Global sea level has risen by about 8 inches since reliable record keeping began in 1880. It is projected to rise another 1 to 4 feet by 2100. This is the result of added water from melting land ice and the expansion of seawater as it warms. In the next several decades, storm surges and high tides could combine with sea level rise and land subsidence to further increase permanent flooding in many regions. Sea level rise will continue past 2100 because the oceans take a very long time to respond to warmer conditions at the Earth’s surface. Ocean waters will therefore continue to warm and sea level will continue to rise for many centuries at rates equal to or higher than those of the current century.
Global warming is affecting sea ice, glaciers and continental ice sheets world wide. Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. The amount of spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the past five decades and that the snow is melting earlier. Warming ocean will cause most Antarctic ice shelf mass to melt. Ocean waters melting the undersides of Antarctic ice shelves are responsible for most of the continent's ice shelf mass loss. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (1750-1900), the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent.This increase is the result of humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the oceans. The amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about 2 billion tons per year.
Global warming leads to coral bleaching and changes ocean chemistry, leading to acidification.
Cow belching due to enteric fermentation. (“Enteric fermentation” is the digestive process of converting sugars into simple molecules for absorption into the bloodstream, which produces methane as a by-product.) is a source of methane. However, a small percentage of methane is also produced in the cow’s large intestine and then expelled. Settling ponds and lagoons for processing manure also produce copious amounts of this greenhouse gas.
Conclusion.
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Human‐induced climate change requires urgent action. Humanity is the major influence on the global climate change observed over the past 50 years. Rapid societal responses can significantly lessen negative outcomes. The dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide. The evidence is well established: global warming is occurring. If no significant mitigating actions are taken, major disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.
Global warming is real and so is climate change. Human activities are responsible to those events worldwide. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. Most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems.
Realizing that the world global economic development and use of global resources are out of control and forcing a complete collapse of Global Community, and realizing that international trade agreements are all obsolete and primitive, and that all those human activities by large are causing the destruction of livelihood worldwide and that of the next generations, endangering all lifeforms on the planet, putting in great danger all global ecosysytems, in short threatening the survival of all life on our planet, we need a complete turn around of our ways of doing things in business and trade, in global development and the management of global resources, and we must replace the United Nations by Global Parliament with the immediate action to form the Global Trade and Resources Ministry as promoted by Global Civilization. Other essential global ministries have also been developed and promoted by Global Parliament.
