2.3      Developing nations with low TFR (Mexico, Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, China)

2.4      Developing nations with high TFR (Kenya, Botswana, Zimbabwe, all nations of sub-Saharan Africa)

Many of the nations with high and relatively unchanging TFR's have several features in common:

• They are still largely agricultural
• There is much social inequity and poverty
• Women are held in very low status and poorly educated (for example, in sub-Saharan Africa, 49% of women between the ages of 20 and 24 years are illiterate (for women older than 25 year, the illiteracy rate is 75%!)

2.5      Policies to decrease world population

• delay reproduction until later in life
Delaying reproduction is important in influencing population growth rates. Over a period of 60 years, if people delay reproduction until they are 30 years old, you would have only two generations, while if you do not delay reproduction you would have three generations (one generation every 20 years).
• spread your children farther apart
• to have fewer children overall
• government commitment to decreasing population growth
Create policies that help decreasing the number of children being born. Policies such as income tax deductions for dependent children and maternity and paternity leaves are essentially pronatalist and should be eliminated.
• programs that are locally designed and that include information on family planning and access to contraceptives
• educational programs that emphasize the connection between family planning and social good

3.0      Global Community overall picture

As of 2003, there is a permanent human presence in space, specifically the three-man crew of the International Space Station.

The northernmost settlement in the world is Alert, Ellesmere Island, Canada.

Age structure:

• 0-14 years: 1,818,803,078 (29.92%)
• male: 932,832,913 (15.35%)
• female: 885,970,165 (14.57%)
• 15-64 years: 3,840,881,326 (63.19%)
• male: 1,942,402,264 (31.95%)
• female: 1,898,479,062 (31.23%)
• 65 years and over: 419,090,130 (6.89%)
• male: 184,072,470 (3.03%)
• female: 235,017,660 (3.87%) (2000 est.)

Birthrate: 22 births/1,000 population (2000 est.)

Death rate: 9 deaths/1,000 population (2000 est.)

Sex ratio:

• at birth: 1.05 male(s)/female
• under 15 years: 1.05 male(s)/female
• 15-64 years: 1.02 male(s)/female
• 65 years and over: 0.78 male(s)/female
• total population: 1.01 male(s)/female (2000 est.)

Life expectancy at birth:

• total population: 64 years

• male: 62 years
• female: 65 years (2000 est.)

Motivation, rather than differential access to modern contraception is a major determinant of fertility.  Individuals frequently respond to scarcity by having fewer children, and to perceived improved economic opportunity by having more children. Economic development does not cause family size to shrink; rather, at every point where serious economic opportunity beckons, family size preferences expand.

A)  Foreign aid conveys to the recipients the perception of improving economic wellbeing, which is followed by an increase in the fertility of the recipients of the aid.

B)  Migrations from regions of low economic opportunity to places of higher economic opportunity result in an increase in the fertility of the migrants that persists for a generation or two.

Future historians may see the 20^th century as a demographic anomaly – seven decades of accelerating population growth, unlike any previously experienced, followed by three of subsiding growth as use of contraception spread around the world.There is no certainty about future trends, however. And barring catastrophe, human population will continue expanding for decades to come. The planet’s water and land resources will provide less amply for each person, and environmental problems will become more challenging to resolve. At what level and in what decade population growth halts, and what kind of societies will witness this peak, will depend very much on how seriously governments and other social institutions take the commitments agreed to at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo in 1994.

In Cairo, the governments of the world agreed on a set of policies that could lead to a stabilized world population but which also make sense on other grounds. The relatively inexpensive strategies endorsed at this meeting are worth supporting regardless of population’s role in environmental or human well-being. The strategies are grounded not in demographic objectives but in fostering the development of each person’s capacity to make major life decisions for herself or himself, decisions such as how long to stay in school or when to have a child. In Cairo, the governments of 179 nations agreed that an estimated $17 billion annually by the year 2000 (rising to $21.7 billion by 2015) would be required to assure universal access to basic reproductive health services within 20 years. Five years later, in 1999, the same governments reiterated the importance of reaching these financial goals. Unfortunately, except for a handful of donor- and developing-country governments, most have failed to provide their share of this total. In the United States, ideological divisions within Congress have resulted in this country falling far short of its needed contribution. Unless such trends reverse, reproductive health services will remain unavailable to many of the world’s poorest people. And the projected declines in fertility and population growth that many experts point to as the likely future simply will not occur.

4.0      Overpopulation as a social issue

The density of population has an impact on a broad range of social and economic issues, such as land prices and housing costs. For example, relatively densely populated countries such as Japan have higher land prices than less densely populated countries such as Australia, and even in that country, land prices have doubled and redoubled as the population has increased. It is sometimes argued that reducing the populations of some areas, such as large cities, would have positive benefits for these reasons.

The world’s human population currently numbers about 6.1 billion people, and the figure grows by nearly 90 million people each year, or around 240,000 each day. This annual addition to population is greater than ever before in history prior to the 1980s. It stems in large part from the unprecedented size of current population. The growth rate itself has actually declined since 1970, from about 2 percent to about 1.5 percent today. However, because this rate is applied to a much larger population than in 1970—when world population stood at 3.7 billion people—the added yearly increments are larger. If the population growth rate is not reduced further, world population will double by the year 2040. This growing global population affects the welfare of communities and ecosystems around the world.

In our lifetimes, humanity has become a force on the planet that rivals nature. The reasons for this are complex and linked to changes not only in human population but in technology, consumption patterns, unequal distribution of wealth and the choices made by people, businesses and governments. Research on these issues is far from complete. At some point, however, the cumulative weight of the evidence argues for prudent efforts that will contribute to a stable world population within at least the lifetimes or our children. The need is not to control population growth. Governments cannot control childbearing and attempts to do so have sometimes led to coercive approaches to reproduction that violate human rights. The need is rather to expand the power individuals have over their own lives, especially by enabling them to choose how many children to have and when to have them.

Population is a complex issue, closely tied to a wide range of other issues such as:

• Reproductive Health
• Policy
• Environment
• Gender and Society
• International Advocacy
• Economics and Governance

5.0      Impacts of the overpopulation

Clearly the environmental challenges facing humanity in the 21st century and beyond would be less difficult in a world with slower population growth or none at all. Population is a critical variable influencing the availability of each of the natural resources considered here. And access to family planning services is a critical variable influencing population. Use of family planning contributes powerfully to lower fertility, later childbearing, and slower population growth. Yet policymakers, environmentalists and the general public remain largely unaware of the growing interest of young people throughout the world in delaying pregnancies and planning their families. In greater proportions than ever, girls want to go to school and to college, and women want to find fulfilling and well-paid employment. Helping people in every country to obtain the information and services they need to put these ambitions into effect is all that can be done, and all that needs to be done, to end world population growth in the new century.

Comprehensive population policies are an essential element in a world development strategy that combines access to reproductive health services, to education and economic opportunities, to improved energy and natural resource technologies, and to healthyer models of consumption and the "good life." Together these can bring humanity into enduring balance with the environment and the natural resources upon which we will always depend.

Today more than 1.1 billion people live in the areas richest in species diversity and the most threatened by human activities. While these areas comprise about 12 percent of the planet's land surface, they hold nearly 20 percent of its human population. The population in these biodiversity hotspots is growing at a collective rate of 1.8 percent annually, compared to the world's population's annual growth rate of 1.3 percent.

The planet's major renewable natural resources — its fresh water, fisheries and forests — are already strained. Our atmosphere has been dramatically altered. Based on these trends, it is clear that the 21st century will witness even greater pressures on natural resources.

Current demographic trends offer hope, however. Over the past 40 years the average number of children born to each woman has fallen from five to less than three. Young people increasingly want to wait to have children and to have smaller families. Policymakers have a choice. They can do nothing, or they can help ensure that in the 21st century the world's population peaks with fewer than 8 billion people, simply by committing the financial resources to meet the needs of couples who want to have smaller families and delay childbearing.

6.0      Population control

Population control is the practice of curtailing population increase, usually by reducing the birth rate. The practice has sometimes been voluntary, as a response to poverty, or out of religious ideology, but in some times and places it has been government-mandated. This is generally done to try to prevent a believed threat of Malthusian catastrophe, or overpopulation in general.

Given the nature of human reproductive biology, controlling the birth rate generally implies one of the following practices:

• sexual abstinence
• contraception
• sterilization
• abortion
• infanticide

An important example of mandated population control is China's one child policy, in which having more than one child is made extremely unattractive. This has led to allegations that practices like infanticide, forced abortions and forced sterilization are used as a result of the policy.

7.0      Action at the Global Community level

The policies that contribute to the slowing of population growth are tested and cost-effective. Improving access to a range of high-quality contraceptive services remains a central strategy for closing the gap between reproductive intentions and outcomes. Lack of such access is a primary reason that today nearly two out of every five pregnancies are unintended, and that more than 150 million women do not want to become pregnant but are not using any form of contraception. Similarly, making sure that all girls and boys everywhere complete secondary school not only improves human development and health outcomes, but also discourages early and frequent pregnancy and thus contributes powerfully to slower population growth. The same is true of improving opportunities for women to find paying jobs or start their own businesses.

International agreements provide benchmarks for performance in these areas. In particular, governments should support and fund the social investments called for by the Programme of Action of the ICPD, which both focus on women’s well-being and promise to contribute to slower population growth and the conservation of critical natural resources. When projecting future changes in environmental conditions, environmental and policy analysts should take into account scenarios suggested by the full range of population projections published by the United Nations Population Division and others, rather than merely those based on middle projections. Both governments and non-governmental organizations should consider integrated, global community-based approaches that improve both natural-resource conservation and access to reproductive health services.

7.1      Impacts of family planning and health services

Family planning and reproductive health services can affect the lives of women, men, and children. There are vast disparities in sexual and reproductive health and risks between rich and poor countries of the world. The past century witnessed dramatic improvements in what we now call “reproductive health,” especially in the more developed countries. There, near-universal access to high quality care in pregnancy and childbirth, to life-saving drugs and safe surgical procedures—including safe abortion—coupled with high levels of contraceptive use and low fertility, all contribute to good reproductive health overall.

The situation is quite different in the developing world. In the year 2000, fully 98 percent of the 3.43 million adult deaths from causes related to poor reproductive health occurred in the developing world. In developed countries, a woman has only a 1 in 2,125 risk of dying in pregnancy or childbirth over the course of her lifetime. That risk is 33 times higher, at 1 in 65, for women in developing countries.

7.2      Reproductive health services

Sexual activity and childbearing early in life carry significant risks for young people all around the world. Teen mothers face twice the risk of dying from childbirth than do women in their twenties, and their children are more vulnerable to health risks as well. Every year, almost half of all new HIV infections and at least one-third of all new sexually transmitted infections occur to people younger than 25.

7.3      Unintended pregnancies

Every year nearly 80 million unintended pregnancies occur worldwide. More than half of these pregnancies end in abortion. An estimated 150 million women in developing countries say they would prefer to plan their families but are not using contraception, and another 350 million women lack access to effective family planning methods.

Reproductive health services can help. Voluntary family planning and other reproductive health services can help couples avert high-risk pregnancies, prevent unwanted childbearing and abortion, and avoid diseases such as HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections, that can lead to death, disability, and infertility.

7.4      Abortion policies

Worldwide, more than one-fifth of all pregnancies—nearly 46 million—are terminated each year. An estimated 36 million procedures take place in the developing world and 10 million in the developed world. Twenty million of these abortions are carried out under illegal and often
unsafe conditions. Women who want to terminate a pregnancy tend to ignore the legal status of abortion. Many women are willing to risk unsafe abortions. In the poorest countries, women face a much higher risk of death from unsafe abortion. In Africa, one in every 150
abortions leads to death compared to one in every 85,000 procedures in the developed world.

Restrictive abortion policies mainly affect the poor who rely on the public sector for all their
health needs; women who have the means can usually obtain abortions from the private sector.

7.5      Nutritional anemia in pregnancy

Iron-deficiency anemia is the most prevalent micronutrient deficiency in the world today. It is especially common in women of reproductive age and particularly during pregnancy. The prevalence of anemia varies greatly among and within countries and is often related to poverty.

By some estimates, levels among pregnant women reach 70 percent in South Asia. In sub-Saharan Africa outside of South Africa, levels exceed 40 percent. Yet anemia can easily be treated with oral iron supplements.

7.6      Care in pregnancy and childbirth

Approximately one-quarter of pregnant women develop complications. More than one pregnancy in 350 is fatal. Adequate care during pregnancy and especially at labor and delivery are the most cost-effective interventions for improving maternal and newborn health, according to the World Bank. Yet in the developing world some 45 million women do not receive prenatal care and 60 million births take place in the absence of skilled attendants.

7.7      HIV/AIDS

AIDS is one of the leading killers of our time. In 2000, 4.7 million adults around the world became infected with the human immuno-deficiency virus (HIV) and another 2.5 million died of AIDS. Over 95 percent of these deaths and new infections occurred in the developing world. Sub-Saharan Africa is the epicenter of the pandemic, with more than 70 percent of all new infections and 80 percent of deaths in 2000.

AIDS kills people at the height of their reproductive and productive years. Dying young often leaves women enough time to bear children, but not enough to raise them. Where the epidemic is well advanced, it adversely affects the well-being of families and precarious economies.

Where HIV infection rates are the highest in the world, condom use is lowest. With growing numbers of infections among women due to the increase in heterosexual transmission of HIV, the need for female-controlled methods has taken on greater urgency.

7.8      Risk of death in childbearing

Every pregnancy entails risk, especially where health care is poor. Each year, more than 500,000 women worldwide die from pregnancy or childbirth-related causes, almost all of them in the developing world.

Most maternal deaths could be prevented with inexpensive measures. The World Bank and World
Health Organization estimate it would cost just US $3.00 per capita per year to provide standard mother and baby care for women in low-income countries.

Reproductive Health

Over the past three decades, the world has made substantial progress towards improving reproductive health and slowing population growth, but many challenges remain:

• Maternal and child deaths in developing countries are unacceptably high. Every minute of every day, a woman dies in pregnancy or childbirth and some 20 children die of largely preventable causes. And many more women are left ill or disabled by complications in pregnancy and delivery.
  
  
• A mother's health affects the health of her children. Women who are in poor health or poorly nourished are more likely to give birth to unhealthy babies, and often cannot provide adequate care, diminishing the chances their children will survive and thrive. The reduction in women's productivity also places an economic burden on their families, communities and societies.
  
  
• The death of a mother is devastating for her family. Studies in Bangladesh show that when a mother dies after giving birth her newborn baby has much lower chances of surviving until its first birthday. Children who survive a mother's death are less likely to receive adequate nourishment and health care. Older girls in families where the mother has died often drop out of school to care for younger siblings and do household chores.
  
  
• Gender inequities, sexual coercion, and violence by intimate partners undermine women's sexual and reproductive autonomy and jeopardize their health and well-being. Women who lack sexual autonomy often are powerless to refuse unwanted sex or to use conception and thus are at greater risk of unwanted pregnancies, STI's, and HIV. The reproductive health field is attempting respond to the need to address the conditions of people's sexual lives by sensitizing and training health workers, developing referral, and developing negotiating skills in both women and men. At the community level, efforts to bring about more equitable gender relations are ever more common.
  
  
• Pregnancies to very young mothers also carry increased risk for both mother and baby. Children born to mothers under age 18 have a greater chance of dying before age five, compared with births to mothers aged 20 to 34. Teenage girls who are not physically mature are at greater risk of obstructed labor and complications during delivery. They are less likely to obtain prenatal care and to have the means to safeguard the health of their infants.
  
  
• Adolescent girls are also more likely to undergo unsafe abortions than older women. Even where abortion is legal, access may be difficult for unmarried girls. In many countries the number of abortions to adolescents is growing and unsafe abortion is a leading cause of death among teenage girls.
  
  
• AIDS kills people at the height of their reproductive and productive years, with devastating consequences for families, communities, and national economies. In sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV infection rates are the highest in the world, condom use is lowest, at 1 percent among married couples. With growing numbers of infections among women due to the increase in heterosexual transmission of HIV, women account for 55 percent of all infected people in sub-Saharan Africa.

Comprehensive reproductive health services, especially care in pregnancy and childbirth and for sexually transmitted infections, are key to preventing disability and death and improving women's health. Better access to emergency care during childbirth and safe abortion services would also contribute significantly to lower maternal death rates. Family planning diminishes risks associated with frequent childbearing and helps reduce reliance on abortion.

In the face of the AIDS pandemic and the spread of other STIs, efforts to educate the public and promote condom use are critical. The threat of HIV/AIDS has also heightened the need for programs that help women and men-and especially young people-strengthen their communications and negotiating skills.

An important obstacle to couple negotiation of contraceptive use and protection from STDs including HIV is that most women have unequal access to resources and decision-making. Yet women are more vulnerable to the consequences of unplanned pregnancies and often HIV/STI's. For these reasons, countering the prevailing gender stereotypes that increase risky behaviors and decrease couple communication is a key strategy for promoting good reproductive health.

Ultimately, good sexual and reproductive health benefits everyone. Its consequences extend from the family to the entire planet.

7.9      Improving reproductive health

Financing Population Programs: The Role of Donor Countries

Many developing countries lack the funds to provide universal access to good quality reproductive health care. Most women and couples, therefore, rely for their reproductive health services on government programs funded through international population assistance. Declining and irregular contributions form donor nations to the United Nations Population Fund, however, threaten continuation of these crucial services. Concurrently, the last few decades have seen an enormous increase in the use of such services and rising demand could easily drain the dwindling resources the world provides. Increased financial support from donor countries remains essential to improving reproductive health and slowing population growth.

Global Disparities in Reproductive Health

The risks associated with sexual activity and childbearing vary tremendously from country to country, reflecting differences in public health policies, income levels, and social and cultural practices affecting sexual relationships and access to healthcare. In developed countries, one woman in 2,100 dies during pregnancy or childbirth over the course of her lifetime. The situation is quite different in the developing world where a woman's risk of death from maternal causes is 1 in 60, fully 35 times that of her developed country counterpart. More than a quarter of pregnant women in developing countries still receive no prenatal care and nearly half give birth with no help from skilled health personnel.

Status of Women

Improving the social and economic status of women, which greatly affect and are affected by poor reproductive health, is a vital concern. Increasing a woman's educational level and control over financial resources can improve her status within the household, thereby increasing not only her role in decision-making, knowledge about health and services available to her, and access to food and other resources that contribute to good health.

Ultimately, good sexual and reproductive health benefits everyone and its consequences extend from the family to the entire planet.

The vast disparities in reproductive health worldwide and the greater vulnerability of the poor to reproductive risk point to several steps all governments can take, with the support of other sectors, to improve the health of women and their families:

• Give women more life choices. The low social and economic status of women and girls sets the stage for poor reproductive health
  
  
• Invest in reproductive health care
  
  
• Encourage delays in the onset of sexual activity and first births
  
  
• Help couples prevent and manage unwanted childbearing
  
  
• Ensure universal access to maternal health care
  
  
• Support new reproductive health technologies
  
  
• Increase efforts to address the HIV pandemic
  
  
• Involve communities in evaluating and implementing programs
  
  
• Develop partnerships with the private sector, policymakers and aid donors to broaden support for reproductive health



• Measure Progress

More and more young people on every continent want to start bearing children later in life and to have smaller families than at any time in history. Likewise, in greater proportions than ever, women and girls in particular want to go to school and to college, and they want to find fulfilling and well-paid employment. Helping people in every country obtain the information and services they need to put these ambitions into effect is all that can be done, and all that needs to be done, to bring world population growth to a stable landing in the new century.

7.10      Biodiversity

Recent studies conclude that the underlying causes of biodiversity loss include population growth, migration to ecologically sensitive areas, poverty and inequity, policies that promote unsustainable resource consumption, and a lack of environmental awareness. Growth in demand for food and housing, each rooted in population growth, has contributed greatly to the loss of biodiversity. Both conversion of species-rich forests and wetlands to cropland and the increasing intensity of fertilizer and pesticide use are major factors in the extinction of species, and they are direct responses to increases in food demand.

More than 1.1 billion people now live in the world's 25 biodiversity-rich hotspots. The hotspots are home to around 20 percent of the world's population, although the original boundaries of these regions enclose only about 12 percent of the planet's land surface.

7.11      Forests

The forest-to-people ratio-a simple division of a country's forest cover by its population -helps quantify the number of people living with low levels of forest resources both now and in the future. Many are vulnerable to scarcities of key forest products such as timber and paper and risk the collapse of vital forest services such as control of erosion and flooding in populated areas. In some countries the forest-to-people ratio declines even though forests expand, simply because their populations grow more rapidly than their forests.

7.12      Education and Economic Development

The well-being of the world's natural resources is closely linked to the health and well-being of women. Investing in education for girls helps them to contribute to their national economies-and to postpone childbearing until they are ready for a family. Providing credit and other economic opportunities for women creates alternatives to early and frequent childbearing. Finally, better access to quality reproductive health services directly benefits women and their families. These approaches increase human capacity, providing the greatest long-term return to societies, individuals and the environment. Moreover, they are likely to lead to an early peak in world population in the coming century-quite possibly at levels that can co-exist with forests that teem with human and non-human life for centuries to come.

7.13      Population and Hope

Clearly the environmental challenges humanity faces in the 21st century and beyond would be less difficult in a world with slower population growth or none at all. Population is a critical variable influencing the availability of each of the natural resources considered here. Access to family planning contributes powerfully to lower fertility, later childbearing, and slower population growth. Yet policymakers, environmentalists and the general public remain largely unaware of the growing interest of young people throughout the world in delaying pregnancies and planning their families. In greater proportions than ever, girls want to go to school and to college, and women want to find fulfilling and well-paid employment. Helping people in every country to obtain the information and services they need to put these ambitions into effect is a critical step towards ending world population growth in this century.

Comprehensive population policies are an essential element in a world development strategy that combines access to reproductive health services, to education and economic opportunity, to improved energy and natural resource technologies, and to saner models of consumption and the "good life." Together these can bring humanity into enduring balance with the environment and the natural resources upon which we will always depend.

Birth Control

8.1       History of birth control

When pregnancy is not desired, either at least one of the participants must be sterile, sexual intercourse must be avoided, or contraception must be used prior to conception.

Contraception (even vasectomy) is not always 100% effective. More generally, in sexual behavior contact of semen with the vagina should be avoided. For example, partners can restrict themselves to masturbation, oral sex, etc., but they should not forget to keep not only the penis but also the sperm away from the vagina. Abstinence is sometimes called the only 'sure' way to avoid pregnancy. If perfectly adhered to, it is. However, some who habitually rely on it as their primary protection may cease to abstain and thereby incur the risk of pregnancy.

8.2       Traditional birth control methods:

• celibacy, or sexual abstinence (these may be more properly called alternatives to birth control)
• non-procreative sex, such as
  • sex without penetration ("outercourse")
  • anal sex or oral sex
• coitus interruptus
• the rhythm method

8.3       Modern birth control methods:

• Barrier methods
  • condom
  • female condom
  • diaphragm

• Chemical methods
  • oral contraceptives ("The Pill")
  • Other chemical contraceptives (implants, male pill, depo-provera).
  • spermicides
  • morning-after pill

• Other methods
  • herbal contraception
  • Intrauterine Device
  • Natural family planning
  • surgical sterilization, including vasectomy for men and tubal ligation for women
  • chemical or surgical abortion (not considered by some to be birth control, since pregnancy occurs)

Condoms and herbal birthcontrol methods existed before the modern era. The herbal methods were of various effectiveness, and were available in China and Europe.

8.4       Religious and cultural attitudes to birth control

The official position of the Catholic Church regarding birth control is expressed very clearly in Pope Pius XI's encyclical entitled Casti Connubii. It was written in response to the Episcopalian approval of artificial means of contraception when used in cases of grave necessity.

Since, therefore, openly departing from the uninterrupted Christian tradition some recently have judged it possible solemnly to declare another doctrine regarding this question, the Catholic Church, ... in order that she may preserve the chastity of the nuptial union from being defiled by this foul stain, ... proclaims anew: any use whatsoever of matrimony exercised in such a way that the act is deliberately frustrated in its natural power to generate life is an offense against the law of God and of nature, and those who indulge in such are branded with the guilt of a grave sin.

In 1968 Pope Paul VI released a document called Humanae Vitae, which again forbade chemical and barrier methods but suggested natural methods such as the rhythm method or natural family planning might be considered in cases of necessity. The public response to this suggestion was immediate and overwhelming. There is dissent however. Some priests and theologians accept only abstinence as moral and there are also those who assert abstinence within a marriage can be immoral.

Couples seeking marriage in the Catholic Church are required to undergo counseling by a Catholic priest. In the past priests led couples seeking to delay children to rhythm, today they are instructed to point new couples toward the more effective natural family planning.

9.0       Action at the Local Community level

Individuals, too, can help bring about a world that is more secure and more supportive of life, health and happiness. They can educate themselves on population dynamics, consumption patterns and the impact of these forces on natural resources and the environment. They can be socially, politically and culturally active to elevate the issues they care about. They can become more environmentally responsible in their purchasing decisions and their use of energy and natural resources. And individuals and couples can consider the impacts of their reproductive decisions on their communities and the world as a whole.

What is needed is for government and the private sector to make reproductive health services available to all who seek them, to make sure that girls and boys can go to and stay in school, and to make economic opportunities as accessible to women as to men. Combined with improved energy and natural-resource technologies and saner models of consumption and the “good life,” these strategies can bring humanity into enduring balance with the environment and the natural resources that people will always need.

10.0       Action concerning fisheries

The world's ocean fisheries are already being fished to their maximum capacities or are in decline. Global fish production climbed modestly in 1997, the last year for which global data were available, almost entirely because the farming of fish expanded in the world's most populous country, China. While the number of fishermen continues to increase, the amount of fish each fisherman catches is falling steadily. The poor have long depended on fish for complete protein but population growth has caused this important food source to be out of their reach.

11.0       Action concerning forests

Today about 1.8 billion people live in 36 countries with less than 0.1 hectare of forested land per capita, an indicator of critically low levels of forest cover. Based on the medium population projection and current deforestation trends, by 2025 the number of people living in forest-scarce countries could nearly double to 3 billion. Most of the world's original forests have been lost to the expansion of human activities. In many parts of the developing world, the future availability of forest resources for food, fuel and shelter looks quite discouraging. Future declines in the per capita availability of forests, especially in developing countries, are likely to pose major challenges for both conservation and human well-being.

Why population growth matters to the future of forests

The world's forests provide goods and services essential to human and planetary well-being. But forests are disappearing faster today than ever before. Due both to deforestation and human population growth, the current ratio of forests to human beings is less thn half what it was in 1960. Yet we not only need more forests, we need forests more than ever before–to protect the world's remaining plant and animal life, to prevent flooding, to slow human-induced climate change, and to provide the paper on which education and communication still depend. More efficient consumption of forest products and eventual stabilization of human population–a prospect that appears more promising today as birthrates decline–will be needed to conserve the world's forests in the coming millennium.

Half of the world's original forest cover is gone, a loss that reflects humanity's intensive use of land since the invention of farming. Of the forest that remains, less than one-fourth could be considered relatively undisturbed by human activity. The vast primeval forests of Europe and Asia survive today only as patchwork remnants of secondary growth, much of it vulnerable to logging, encroachment by development, pollution, fire and disease.

Forests are currently expanding in much of the industrialized world, while shrinking in most of the developing world. In just the first five years of the 1990s, 65 million hectares of forest–an area the size of Afghanistan– were converted to other uses in developing countries. By contrast, the industrialized countries gained 9 million hectares of forested land, an area about the size of Hungary. The pattern of forest loss in developing countries today differs from past losses in Europe and elsewhere in two key respects: human populations are much larger than before, and the pace of deforestation is more rapid. In the last four decades, an area half the size of the United States has been cleared of tropical forests, while population in developing countries has doubled to 4.7 billion. Among the most encouraging trends for the future of forests is the fact that fertility and birthrates are now declining in developing countries, leading demographers to revise downward their projections of future population growth.

Population dynamics are among the primary underlying causes of forest decline. Poverty, corruption, inequitable access to land and wasteful consumption practices also influence the decisions of governments, corporations and individuals to cut and clear forests. The interaction of these forces is most evident in areas such as South Asia, Central America and sub-Saharan Africa, where poverty, rapid population growth and weak institutions contribute to forest loss and severe environmental degradation.

The dominant force in forest loss is growth in the demand for farmland. Subsistence agriculture is the principal cause of forest loss in Africa, Asia and much of Latin America. Slash-and-burn farming and other traditional techniques were sustainable for centuries when population densities were lower. Today they are a major factor, along with the expansion of commercial farms and livestock grazing areas, in the permanent conversion of wooded land to agriculture. The need to increase food production is expected to accelerate the forest-to-farmland cycle, especially in countries where alternatives for meeting this demand are limited.

Total wood consumption has tripled during the 20th century. Per capita consumption has changed little on a global basis–actually decreasing slightly–but consumption patterns vary widely between countries. A typical American uses 15 times as much lumber and paper as a resident of a developing country. Reducing wood consumption in the industrialized world is unlikely to stop forest loss in developing countries however, since most of the wood consumed comes from trees in the industrialized countries themselves. Nevertheless, the consumption model offered to the rest of the world threatens accelerated forest loss as both populations and economies grow in developing countries.

Commercial logging of tropical forests has doubled since 1960, accounting for 5 million to 6 million hectares of forest loss each year, an area nearly the size of Sri Lanka. This is about one third the forest area lost each year in the developing world. Illegal logging causes a significant, though unquantified, amount of additional forest loss. Logging's biggest role in deforestation, however, is more indirect. Logging roads provide pathways deep into forests that farmers and other settlers then follow, permanently clearing the land for crops and pasture.

Nearly 3 billion people depend on wood as their main source of energy. The production of fuelwood and charcoal accounts for over 90 percent of the wood harvested in Africa, 80 percent in Asia and 70 percent in Latin America. Population growth is closely linked to rising woodfuel demand. The effects of woodfuel scarcity are most severe in impoverished areas, where more modern fuels are inaccessible or unaffordable.

Women and children are the victims of woodfuel scarcity. The search for fuel consumes the time, energy and health of women and their children. As local wood supplies grow scarce, women risk spinal column damage and uterine prolapse from carrying heavier loads over longer distances. Girls are often kept home from school to help their mothers gather wood, depriving them of educational opportunities. Where wood is unavailable, women cook with inefficient fuels such as animal dung or crop wastes, depriving livestock of fodder and soils of natural fertilizer. This endangers both the nutritional and respiratory health of women and their families.

Forest scarcity threatens the use of paper for education, the activity most likely to improve health and economic well-being. 80 percent of the world's population lack access to enough affordable paper and reading materials to meet basic standards for literacy and communication. Reducing paper consumption could help ensure enough paper for all. These efforts are undermined, however, by broader inequalities in access to education and economic opportunity. Closing the "paper gap" between rich and poor nations ultimately depends on government action to increase spending on education, health and social services in developing countries. Future population growth and forest loss will largely determine whether and when this gap can be closed.

Population policies based on human development and the Scale of Human and Earth Rights offer the greatest hope for the future of forests. This is not an argument for population "control" but for the social investments that allow couples to choose when to have children and how many to have. Programs linking conservation activities with family planning services show promise for achieving both the sustainable use of forests and greater acceptance of reproductive health services.

Sustainable wood consumption is essential for the future of forests. Individuals and institutions alike should promote the ecologically sound and socially responsible use of forest products. Eco-labeling, or the environmental certification of wood products, could speed the adoption of more sustainable forestry practices. Consumer demand for green-certified paper and other wood products is an important complement to recycling and other efforts to reduce wood consumption.

The well-being of the world's forests is closely linked to the health and well-being of women. Investing in education for girls helps them to contribute to their national economies–and to postpone childbearing until they are ready for a family. Providing credit and other economic opportunities for women creates alternatives to early and frequent childbearing. Finally, better access to quality reproductive health services directly benefits women and their families. These approaches increase human capacity, providing the greatest long-term return to societies, individuals and the environment. Moreover, they are likely to lead to an early peak in world population in the coming century–quite possibly at levels that can co-exist with forests that teem with human and non-human life for centuries to come.

12.0       Action concerning agricultural land and food production

The number of people living in countries where cultivated land is critically scarce is projected to increase to between 600 million and 986 million in 2025. Despite the Green Revolution and other technological advances, agriculture experts continue to debate how long crop yields will keep up with population growth. The food that feeds the future will be raised mostly on today's cropland. The soil on this land must remain fertile to keep food production secure. The minimum amount of land needed to supply a vegetarian diet for one person without any use of artificial chemical inputs or loss of soil and soil nutrients is .07 hectares, or slightly less than a quarter of an acre. An estimated 415 million people already live today in countries that have less than that per person. Easing world hunger could become unimaginably difficult if population growth resembles demographers' higher projections.

13.0       Action concerning world hunger

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization defines adequate nourishment as consumption of at least 2,100 kilocalories (often called calories informally) per day. Countries are shaded to illustrate the proportion of the population which does not have access to enough food to satisfy this requirement.

14.0       Action concerning natural resources

Having reached nearly 6.1 billion in 2000, human population continues to grow. UN population projections for the year 2050 range from 7.9 billion to 10.9 billion, suggesting the extent to which we can influence our future. More people and higher incomes worldwide are multiplying humanity's impacts on the environment and on the natural resources that are essential to life. The planet's fresh water, fisheries, forests and atmosphere are already strained.

Based on these trends, it is clear that the 21st century will witness even greater pressures on natural resources. Current demographic trends offer hope, however. Over the past 40 years the average number of children born to each woman has fallen from five to less than three. Young people increasingly want to wait to have children and to have smaller families. Policymakers have a choice. They can do nothing, or they can help ensure that in the 21st century the world's population peaks with fewer than 8 billion people, simply by committing the financial resources to meet the needs of couples who want to have smaller families, later in life.

The future of the relationship between people and critical natural resources has begun to appear more hopeful than it has for some time. Human population growth is slowing down. While slowing, however, significant growth continues, meaning that more people will be sharing such finite resources as freshwater and cropland. And in some regions – notably in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia – large families and early pregnancies provide strong momentum for population growth that could continue for generations to come. But the braking of this growth has been significant enough that many analysts of natural resources are more optimistic about their future availability than they were in the early 1990s.

15.0       Action concerning water

The problem is worse than it often appears on the ground, because much of the fresh water now used in water-scarce regions comes from deep aquifers that are not being refreshed by the natural water cycle. In most of the countries where water shortage is severe and worsening, high rates of population growth exacerbate the declining availability of renewable fresh water. While 25 countries currently experience either water stress or scarcity, 39 to 41 countries are projected to face similar conditions by 2025.

434 million people face either water stress or scarcity. Depending on future rates of population growth, between 2.6 billion and 3.1 billion people may be living in either water-scarce or water-stressed conditions by 2025. For tens of millions of people in the Middle East and in much of Africa today, the lack of available fresh water is a chronic concern that is growing more acute and more widespread. The problem is worse than it often appears on the ground, because much of the fresh water now used in water-scarce regions comes from deep aquifers that are not being refreshed by the natural water cycle. In most of the countries where water shortage is severe and worsening, high rates of population growth exacerbate the declining availability of renewable fresh water. While 25 countries currently experience either water stress or scarcity, between 36 and 40 countries are projected to face similar conditions by 2025.

16.0       Carrying capacity

In biology, the carrying capacity of an environment for a particular species is a measure of the steady-state density that the species can have for a particular habitat to support sustainably. When populations exceed the carrying capacity, famine and disease tend to reduce the size the population.

Humans are the only species known to possess the ability to increase their carrying capacity.

Overpopulation is a condition in which some population can, under certain circumstances, grow so large or dense that it exceeds the biological carrying capacity of its containing natural ecological system and thus will naturally reduce in numbers throughfamine, and lack of essential resources.

In the case of humans, or theoretically, any other specie that is able to extend its carrying capacity through agricultural and technological means, it means harnessing a natural system to sustainably support it with or without causing environmental damage, and the continuous ability to do so. Overpopulation is regarded by many as a critical issue concerning the growth, and future size of the earth's population.

17.0       Overview of results from this report

There is a growing awareness that the unrestrained growth of populations should pay for itself. Taxes and utility costs must escalate in order to pay for the growth. In addition, growth brings increased levels of congestion, frustration, and air pollution. In recent years, several industrialized nations have seen taxpayer revolts in the form of ballot questions that were adopted to limit the allowed tax increases. The revolts have been in the nations that claimed to be the most prosperous because they had the largest rates of population growth. These limits on taxes were felt to be necessary to stop the tax increases that were required to pay for the growth. Unfortunately the growth has managed to continue, while the schools and other public agencies have suffered from the shortage of funds. Communities can slow their population growth by removing the many visible and hidden public subsidies that support and encourage growth.

It clear that there will always be large opposition to programs of making population growth pay for itself. Those who profit from growth will use their considerable resources to convince the community that the community should pay the costs of growth. In our communities, making growth pay for itself could be a major tool to use in stopping the population growth.

Nations experiencing decreases in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) are nations that are very different from each other racially, religiously, and politically, implying that the drive to stabilize populations is a global movement. It is being realized that more people now means less of everything else now and for generations to come, and that more people simply cause additional strain on already-strained resources. In fact, decreasing fertility is an important part of an economic development strategy.

What happens to the idea of the dignity of the human species if this population growth continues at its present rate? It will be completely destroyed. Democracy cannot survive overpopulation.  Human dignity cannot survive overpopulation.  Convenience and decency cannot survive overpopulation.  As you put more and more people onto the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears.  It doesn't matter if someone dies, the more people there are, the less one person matters.


Having reached 6.3 billion in 2003, human population continues to grow. It was estimated that the population of the world in year 2050 will be 9,084,495,405. UN population projections for the year 2050 range from 7.9 billion to 10.9 billion, suggesting the extent to which we can influence our future. More people and higher incomes worldwide are multiplying humanity 's impact on the environment and on natural resources essential to life. Based on these trends, it is clear that the 21st century will witness even greater pressures on natural resources. Current demographic trends offer hope, however. Over the past 40 years the average number of children born to each woman has fallen from five to less than three. Young people increasingly want to wait to have children and to have smaller families. Policymakers have a choice. They can do nothing, or they can help ensure that in the 21st century the world 's population peaks with fewer than 8 billion people, simply by committing the financial resources to meet the needs of couples who want to have smaller families, later in life.