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Earth Community Organization (ECO)
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ZhongXiang Zhang
Ph.D in Economics Senior Fellow Research Program East-West Center 1601 East-West Road Honolulu, HI 96848-1601 USA ZhangZ@EastWestCenter.org http://papers.ssrn.com/author=201341 http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.person.anbpages.html#pzh243 (Worldwide Ranking of Top 1000 Economists, based on number of journal pages weighted by number of authors)
|  Table of Contents 1.0 Meeting the Kyoto Targets: The Importance of Developing Country Participation (the market of tradable permits from no emissions trading to full global trading)
This paper investigates the implications of progressively broadening the scope of the market of tradable permits from no emissions trading to full global trading. We start with the no emissions trading case where each Annex I country must individually meet its Kyoto targets. Next, we consider a case where trading of emissions permits is limited to Annex I countries only. We then expand the scope of the market to include all the non-Annex I countries but China. Finally, to investigate the role China plays in bringing down Annex I countries' compliance costs, we further broaden the market to include China into full global trading. Our results clearly demonstrate that the gain of the OECD as a whole increases as the market expands. Our results also show that developing countries themselves benefit from such an expansion too because it not only provides them for additional financial resources, but also helps to cut their baseline carbon emissions by a big margin. By contrast, the former Soviet Union tends to become worse off as the market expands. The potential conflict of interest between the former Soviet Union and developing countries underlines the importance of establishing clear rules of procedure about admitting new entrants before emissions trading begins. You can review and download the paper at: http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=241355
by Dr. ZhongXiang Zhang
Department of Economics and Public Finance University of Groningen The Netherlands Email: Z.X.Zhang@Rechten.RUG.NL or Z.X.Zhang@ECO.RUG.NL http://www.eco.rug.nl/medewerk/zhang/ The Kyoto Protocol incorporates emissions trading, joint implementation and the clean development mechanism to help Annex I countries to meet their Kyoto targets at a lower overall cost. This paper aims to estimate the size of the potential market for all three flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol over the first commitment period 2008-2012, both on the demand side and on the supply side. Based on the national communications from 35 Annex I countries, the paper first estimates the potential demand in the greenhouse gas offset market. Then, the paper provides a quantitative assessment of the implications of the EU proposal for concrete ceilings on the use of flexibility mechanisms for the division of abatement actions at home and abroad. Finally, using the 12-region's marginal abatement cost-based model, the paper estimates the contributions of three flexibility mechanisms to meet the total emissions reductions required of Annex I countries under the four trading scenarios respectively. Our results clearly demonstrate that the fewer the restrictions on trading the gains from trading are greater. The gains are unevenly distributed, however, with Annex I countries that have the highest autarkic marginal abatement costs tending to benefit the most. With respect to developing countries, their net gains are highest when trading in hot air is not allowed, and China and India account for about three-quarters of the total developing countries' exported permits to the Annex I regions.
Abstract China has been the world's second largest carbon emitter for years. Recent studies show that China had overtaken the U.S. as the world's largest emitter in 2007. This has put China on the spotlight, just at a time when the world community starts negotiating a post-Kyoto climate regime under the Bali Roadmap. China seems to become such a Christmas tree on which everybody can hang his/her complaints. This paper will first discuss whether such a critics is fair by examining China's own efforts towards energy saving, the widespread use of renewable energy and participation in clean development mechanism. Next, the paper puts carbon reductions of China's unilateral actions into perspective by examining whether the estimated greenhouse gas emission reduction from meeting the country's national energy saving goal is achieved from China's unilateral actions or mainly with support from the clean development mechanism projects. Then the paper discusses how far developing country commitments can go in an immediate post-2012 climate regime, thus pointing out the direction and focus of future international climate negotiations. Finally, emphasizing that China needs to act as a large and responsible developing country and take due responsibilities and to set a good example to the majority of developing countries, the paper articulates what can be expected from China to illustrate that China can be a good partner in combating global climate change. This paper can be downloaded at the URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1285618
Abstract To point out the direction and focus of future international climate negotiations, this paper discusses how far developing country commitments can go in an immediate post-2012 climate regime. The paper argues that developing country commitments are most unlikely to go beyond the defined polices and measures in this timeframe. On this basis, the paper suggests that, rather than attempting the unrealistic goal, international climate negotiations may instead need to initially frame the post-2012 developing country participation in terms of certain policies and policies as envisioned a decade ago. This paper can be downloaded at the URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1292050
The paper can be downloaded at the URL:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1079442
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